Well, that was interesting.
Under the heading of always being honest when you’re wrong with predictions, my pick of Joe Biden winning with 350 electoral votes was less than perfect. Biden has won the election, but it looks like he’s going to max out at 306, which is still 36 more than he needed to win.
He carried all the states Hillary Clinton carried in 2016 and apparently has carried five states Trump carried last time — the so-called “blue wall” of Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania and two other states Democrats rarely carry, Georgia and Arizona.
So where was I wrong? Well, I did better than my friend who is two steps on the sane side of QAnon. He sent me something about the Hunter Biden allegations and said, “Joe Biden’s going down.”
So he was wronger than I was. I know that’s not a word, but somehow it seems appropriate here.
I was wrong — and I wasn’t even close to being right — on North Carolina and Florida. I thought Biden would break through in those two states that Barack Obama carried in 2008, but he didn’t even come particularly close.
It’s possible Trump may still come from behind in Arizona, but it wouldn’t really make any difference.
Except to make the specifics of my prediction even wronger.
That word is starting to grow on me.
It would be a mistake to say Trump lost support. When the final votes are toted up, he will have nearly 8 million more votes than he received in 2016. In fact, he’ll wind up with about 5 million more votes than any candidate in previous elections. Unfortunately for him, Biden will finish with between 4-5 million more, close to 10 million more votes than any previous winner.
So if you want analysis, I think the most valid point is that millions and millions of people who hadn’t been voting went to the polls this time. George Wallace used to say there wasn’t a dime’s worth of difference between the two parties, but this time it was very obvious.
This time it was honest and dishonest.
Patriotism and narcissism.
Competence and incompetence.
Joe Biden had run for president twice before, never even making it to the New Hampshire primary before withdrawing. He was never the kind of candidate who got people excited, but he finally had a time when voters were looking for calm, serious candidates who could provide a contrast to Trump.
I figured he would win. I got that right, but it turned out closer than I had expected.
But Biden going down?
Yeah, I guess he will be going down. Down from Delaware to Washington, D.C.
Mike, my ‘take’ on this election seems to be different from most people. Yes, Joe Biden and Kamela Harris will be the next President and Vice President – and I celebrate that victory, mostly with a large exhale. But I also see this as a case of ‘winning the battle, but loosing the war’ when you look at the whole board of elections. Once again, the hyper focus on the Presidency, and particularly Pres. Trump, meant that eyes were taken off of the Congress, and most importantly, the State Legislatures. It is the State Legislatures that will deal with the reapportionment of voting districts. Trump-Republicans won here and the gerrymandering will, in all likelihood, will be epic. Voter Suppression will become more mainstream than it is now. Without either the House or the Senate to back the Biden Administration, I am not sure what can be done – besides tremendous grassroots efforts… It’s hard not to think that this was part of the plan by the Mitch McConnell Republicans.
Winning the battle, loosing the war…sigh…