I went through the Electoral College map a few minutes ago to make my semi-educated guess about the presidential election.
Four years ago, Joe Biden beat Donald Trump, 306-232. If each candidate, Kamala Harris and Trump carried the same states this time that were carried by their party last time, the margin would be 303-235 because of changes from the 2020 census.
That said, I wish I had more of a feel for what is happening today. I think there are 43 states and the District of Columbia, totaling 445 votes, that are basically mortal locks. Despite the amazing poll result from Iowa the other day, I include the Hawkeye State in that total.
Harris comes out of those states with a 226-219 lead.
That leaves seven states up for grabs. Biden carried six of them — Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin — four years ago, while Trump carried North Carolina.
I have three ways of viewing it.
The first scenario is the disastrous one. Trump holds North Carolina and takes four of the other six — Arizona, Georgia, Nevada and Pennsylvania — and wins the election with 287 electoral votes to Harria’a 251.
If this happens, there will be two reasons. First, polls have shown only 28 percent of the country believes we are headed in the right direction. No party in power has ever won when that number is that low. Second, I fear there may be voters who won’t admit it, but who are reluctant to elect an African-American woman as president.
The second scenario may be a different sort of disaster. Harris holds Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin — the so-called “Blue Wall” — and wins, 270-268. Why a disaster? Because if Trump comes that close without winning, just imagine the shenanigans he will pull to try and change the result.
While the closeness of the polls would seem to make this the most likely result, I think it’s actually the least. I expect things will actually break one way or the other.
The third scenario is one where extremely heavy turnout among women because of the 2022 Dobbs decision repealing Roe v Wade, Harris wins all six of the swing states Biden carried last time and wins North Carolina as well. Maybe even Iowa. But without Iowa, she would still win the electoral college, 319-219, and win the popular vote by at least as much as Biden did last time.
In the end, if I had to make a prediction, I believe enough in the goodness of the American electorate to believe that electing Trump president once was a fluke caused at least in part because the Democrats nominated a candidate hated by the right wing.
I don’t think it will happen again.